5. Rivet Popper Hypothesis

Dear readers, 

Hello, and welcome back to the Voice of Prakriti ! Today we are going to talk about the very first hypothesis that subsequently sparked my interest in ecology. 

Like many of you, I was once a beginner. I learnt about the environment and ecology (in detail) for the first time in class 11. Ever since middle school we were taught some familiar warnings -  climate change is bad, species are vanishing because of human actions, conservation is important and biodiversity loss needs to be prevented. Do these lines ring a familiar bell for you, dear readers ? Back then, I couldn’t fully grasp the extent of the problem. There seemed to be a disconnect between the theory we learned and the gravity of reality. This hypothesis, however, gave me a way to measure the seriousness of the situation and understand what we truly stand to gain or lose through our actions. I hope to guide you through the same experience today.

The Rivet-Popper Hypothesis:

Imagine you’re flying in an airplane.

Fig 1. Visual representation of rivets on an aeroplane. Rivets look like tiny screws that fasten the aeroplane parts together. (Made in Canva)

Now, imagine someone starts removing the rivets that hold the plane together— one or two at first. Worrying, but the plane can still fly.

But as more rivets are taken out, a critical point will come where the entire plane will collapse.

This metaphor is the foundation of the Rivet-Popper Hypothesis, introduced by Ehrlich and Ehrlich in 1981, to explain the delicate balance of ecosystems and the role of biodiversity in maintaining stability of the environment that we live in.

If Earth is our airplane; then every organism is a rivet holding it together - and humanity is the pilot. 

With each species that goes extinct, another rivet is lost—weakening the structure bit by bit. 

How many rivets have already been taken out? And how close are we to a catastrophic failure?
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The Rivet-Popper Hypothesis is more than just a theory—it’s a warning.
Human activities such as deforestation, pollution, and climate change, are removing 'rivets' from our ecosystems at an alarming rate. While ecosystems may appear stable for now, the loss of biodiversity is pushing many closer to their tipping points.

By understanding this hypothesis, we recognize that:

a. Biodiversity is not optional; it is essential.

b. Every species, no matter how small, plays a role in maintaining ecological balance.

c. Protecting ecosystems means safeguarding the rivets that hold them together.

It’s important to understand what ecologists mean when they talk about 'ecosystem collapse.' In the airplane analogy, the fear comes from the plane crashing. An ecosystem collapsing doesn’t mean life ceases to exist.

Take a polluted lake, for example. When agricultural runoff and sewage contaminate the water, the lake doesn’t become lifeless. There is excessive algal growth, and some organisms may still survive in those extreme conditions. But the lake, as it once was, is lost.

The collapse isn’t about the absence of life—it’s about what the ecosystem can no longer do. 

It loses its defining characteristics, including the essential services it once provided. (This water cannot be used for drinking, cooking, or agriculture. Fishes are gone and livelihoods disappear. The lake stops supporting the people and wildlife that once depended on it.)

More often than not, this kind of collapse is irreversible. And even if recovery is possible, it’s a slow and difficult process. It takes years, to say the least.

I'd like to tell you about Gorongosa National Park in Mozambique. Before the Civil war, Gorongosa was one of the most pristine wildlife areas in South Africa. However, during Civil war from 1970-80s, the damage was SO INTENSE, that even after decades of restoration efforts starting in 1994 (some of the most effective in history, involving a collaboration of government, NGOs, and local communities)— this park STILL lacks the incredible density that it once had. It still has come nowhere close to its formal glory.

Despite this, the restoration stands as one of the best conservation efforts, showcasing the remarkable work done by all involved.

I want to make it clear that I’m in no way undermining conservation efforts. In fact, it has been my long-standing dream to be part of conservation and restoration projects. What I’m trying to highlight is that if even our best-case scenario—after so much time, effort, and collaboration—has yielded only this level of recovery, then it’s a clear reminder that it is simply not worth tearing our environment apart.

The lake was just one small example. We have forests, entire ecosystems, nations, and continents at stake. They say prevention is better than cure, and I couldn’t agree more. So, let’s focus on prevention, because by the time we search for a cure, it might already be too late.

On this grim but essential note, I’ll see you again with the 6th ecology essential—Keystone species.

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P.S. There was a doodling competition at my old university for Wildlife Week 2022, back when I was studying Environmental Science. While I’m not sure about the exact topic anymore, it focused on demonstrating the importance of wildlife. Entering the competition wasn’t exactly planned, it was somewhat of a last-minute decision. When the topic was announced, my mind instantly went back to this hypothesis I learnt long ago. Time was of essence, and I gave it my best shot in two hours—and ended up winning first prize! Hehe :)

Fig. 1. My doodle attempt. The tiny girl represents Mother Earth, all smiles. The plane is shaped like the Earth, with humanity as the pilot, wearing a cap. As for the rivets, I drew all the animals I could think of.

Fig. 2. That's me 🙋